A Framework for High-Resolution, Climate-Based Energy Time Series from EURO-CORDEX Climate Projections

Original scientific paper

Journal of Sustainable Development of Smart Energy Networks
ARTICLE IN PRESS (scheduled for Vol. 01, Issue 4), 1030730
DOI: https://doi.org/10.13044/j.sdi.d3.0730 (registered soon)
Matteo Buffo1 , Fontina Petrakopoulou2, Andrea Lazzaretto1
1 University of Padova, Padova, Italy
2 Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Abstract

Climate change is reshaping the environmental conditions of energy systems, increasing the need to integrate future climate information into energy modelling frameworks. This work presents a systematic, open-source framework for transforming regional climate projections into high-resolution, energy-relevant weather data. The pipeline processes EURO-CORDEX simulations to produce hourly time series for air temperature, solar irradiance, and wind speed, as well as daily precipitation, across Europe under multiple emission scenarios. In particular, it applies bias adjustment and temporal disaggregation to all variables except precipitation. A comprehensive evaluation against ERA5 is performed to assess dataset quality. Substantial biases in the raw projections are significantly reduced, and the resulting data realistically reproduce observed climate anomalies and the frequency of critical stress events, such as heatwaves and low-wind days. However, solar irradiance peaks are systematically underestimated due to temporal disaggregation to hourly resolution. Moreover, precipitation is deliberately excluded from bias adjustment, as uniform statistical correction degrades model performance. Despite these limitations, the framework provides a reproduceable approach for climate-aware energy system analysis, enabling the assessment of climate impacts on infrastructure planning and system adequacy. It also establishes a foundation for future work, including the integration of updated climate datasets, and the development of advanced post-processing techniques to improve the representation of variability and extremes.

Keywords: Energy systems; Climate change; Weather time series; Climate models; Bias correction; Temporal disaggregations; Climate change; Weather time series; Climate models; Bias correction; Temporal disaggregation

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