The city of Nur-Sultan has a quite long history, which began in the second half of the XIX century. In 1960^th the city became the center of the North Kazakhstan and South Siberian virgin lands development. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the capital of Kazakhstan Republic was transferred from Almaty city to Nur-Sultan. According to the contemporary Strategic Development Plan of Nur-Sultan until 2030 [35], it will be developed on the basis of modern trends in urban planning, with attention to latest achievements in governance and social sphere, as well as environment protection. Moreover, Nur-Sultan is one of the cities in developing countries that has adopted a carbon neutrality target by 2050 [36]. To assess the potential of a city's transition to sustainable development, such aspects as the macroeconomic situation and the national economy trends, resource consumption, the quality of life, the development of urban infrastructure, etc. were taken into account and compared with opportunities within the scope of the SDEWES Index.

Nur-Sultan city is located in typical for Northern Kazakhstan steppe landscape within flat terrain. Such location determines the continental type of climatic conditions, with sudden temperature fluctuations and clearly defined seasons. Unhindered penetration of cold air masses from the Arctic and warm air masses from the deserts of Central Asia causes extreme temperature differentiation: summer heat can reach +40°C, and winter frosts -50°C. Nur-Sultan has a significant potential for solar and wind energy: the total radiation on the horizontal surface varies from 1300 to 1350 kWh/m²/year [37], and the wind energy density index is from 275 to 375 W/m² at an altitude of 100 m and from 500 to 650 W/m² at an altitude of 200 m [38]. The status of the Kazakhstan's capital makes the city one of the financial, cultural and business center of the country and the CIS. The city of Nur-Sultan is characterized by an annual increase in the population (Figure 1), both due to natural growth and migration of the population from other regions of Kazakhstan and Central Asia.

Figure 1.

Dynamics of the Nur-Sultan city population in 2003-2019 [39]

In 2018, the capital became the third city in the country, crossed the millionth milestone [39], and is currently the second city by the number of inhabitants in Kazakhstan.

The share of the city's GRP in the GDP of Kazakhstan in 2018 was almost 10%, which corresponds to the 3^rd place in the country – after the oil-producing Atyrau region at the coast of the Caspian Sea, and the former capital of the country – Almaty city. During 10 years (2008-2018), the GRP of the city increased 5 times (Figure 2).

In terms of GRP per capita, Nur-Sultan also occupies the 3^rd place in the republic: this indicator is 6,360 thousand tenge (or about $14.9 thousand), which is approximately 2 times higher than the average for Kazakhstan (3,383 KZT thousand) [39].

Figure 2.

Dynamics of the GRP of the city of Nur-Sultan, 2008-2019 (KZT billion) [39]

Taking into account the Nur-Sultan city development trends, such as increasing of the population and its well-being, expanding the boundaries of the city and GRP growth, a growth of resources (especially, energy) consumption can be predicted. Until 2016, energy consumption of Nur-Sultan city's facilities exceeded its production by almost 2 times, and the share of local coal extracted from the deposits of Kazakhstan constantly increased in the consumption structure. Today, the share of the coal is near 75% of the total fuel consumed in the city. In 2017, there was a strong decrease in energy consumption to the level of production (7477 million kWh) due to the eve of the International Exhibition EXPO 2017, the theme of which was the energy of the future.

Despite these achievements, Nur-Sultan remains the city with a high level of pollution, of the atmospheric air especially. In 2018, the average concentration of suspended particles (dust) was 2.1 MPC, and nitrogen dioxide - 1.9 MPC [40]. The main sources of these pollutants are motor transport, and the thermal power plants, generating energy through solid fuels burning. The private sector and industrial facilities also make a great contribution. Also, the soil of the city is polluted with heavy metals: exceeding of MPC for copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd) was noted nearest the area of coal-fired TPP-1 and TPP-2, as well as in the old city center with heavy traffic. According to the annual report of Astana Energy JSC [41], it is planned to gasify totally 13 boilers for both stations by the beginning of the heating period 2022, but these plans are not sufficient to solve the problem of carbon emissions.

To address the issue of Nur-Sultan city's population well-being improvement the SDEWES Index is applicable to identify strengths and weaknesses in the current character of development. The intention of the capital city of Kazakhstan to develop in accordance with sustainability principles is fixed in a number of legislative acts and regulatory documents that form the institutional basis for the city's development [35]. Identification of the most topical issues based on the use of the SDEWES index will actualize the city's policy aimed on achievement of climate goals as well as sustainability in general.

The energy consumption of buildings and transport was calculated according to the data on fuel and energy balance of the Nur-Sultan city [39]. To evaluate the buildings contribution to the total energy balance, the data on the coal volume consumable to generate electric and thermal energy – the total volume of fuel needed to produce thermal and electric energy amounted to 3752 thousand tons – were used. To assess the transport contribution, the volume of diesel and gasoline motor fuel consumed in the city was calculated. Total sum was interpreted taking into account a coefficient transferring it into TJ, and further – into MWh. The data on motor gasoline and diesel consumption, which are 386 thousand tons and 211 tons per year respectively, were taken into account to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles in accordance to the Methodological guidelines [42].

Final assessment for the dimension D1 also included the indicator of energy consumption per capita (i_1.3) (4):

$\frac{E}{P\left(C_j\right)}=\frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{b=1}^3{E}_b+{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{t=1}^3{E}_t+E_g+E_d}{P\left(C_j\right)}$ (4)

where:

E – total energy consumption (MWh);

P(C_j) – city population;

E_b – energy consumption by buildings (including 1 (municipal buildings); 2 (residential sector); 3 (commercial buildings)) (MWh);

E_t – energy consumption by transport (including 1 (public); 2 (private); 3 (municipal)) (MWh);

E_g – lighting energy consumption (MWh);

E_d – industrial energy consumption (MWh).

Under the scope of D1, aspects of climate based on heating and cooling degree days are also considered: Nur-Sultan is found to have 6332 total heating and 235 cooling degree days [43] which is very different with the average: 3358 and 1254 degree days respectively.

The first indicator in this dimension (i_2.1) is related to the availability and implementation of an action plan for sustainable energy. The city of Nur-Sultan has an energy efficiency plan supported by the ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program) [44]. Depending on the stage of the plan implementation the following points were used: from 0.5 (there is a plan) to 2.0 (the plan is actively implemented, there are results or a new plan has been adopted) [32]. Since the plan for Nur-Sultan city was adopted only in 2017, it has not yet achieved any results, which means that the city receives 0.5 points.

The indicator (i_2.2) depends first on an understanding of such characteristics as heat and electricity supply systems (energy conversion and energy source of centralized and individual heat supply), as well as the level of introduction of renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, waste) into these systems. None of the energy characteristics is evaluated positively (Table 3).

The third indicator (i_2.3) depends on the availability of energy-efficient buildings in cities - A nearly Zero-Energy Building (nZEB). The national nZEB plan is necessary to receive points, as well as buildings constructed with this technology and an environmental certification of buildings [9]. Since there is no national nZEB plan in Kazakhstan, the only factor for which Nur-Sultan receives a point is the availability and implementation of LEED and BREEAM green certification (Table 4).

The indicator of the public transportation network density (i_2.4) is determined by the development of infrastructure for public transport. Today, public transport in the city of Nur-Sultan is represented only by buses, despite most large cities tend to develop metro and tram tracks, which reduce fossil fuel use, and help to avoid traffic congestion. Thus, 2 points were given to Nur-Sultan for the functioning of trams and metro, and 1 point – for bus lines. Also, an additional 1 point was awarded for special bicycle lines and bike rental places.

For the last indicator (i_2.5), which is effective street lighting, 1 point was awarded for the use of LED lamps, and 2 points – if these lamps work on alternative energy sources. In the city of Nur-Sultan, LED lamps are partially used for street lighting, and LED lamps with a brightness control are partially installed in the new city center (Yesil district) [46]. However, alternative energy sources for street lighting are only being introduced in a small part of the city, in this connection Nur-Sultan receives only 1 point.

Indicators of the renewable energy potential (solar (i_3.1) and wind (i_3.2)) depend on the natural conditions of the city area, which were mentioned above. The data on current share of alternative energy in electricity generation as well as the share of biofuel was received from the Kazakhstan's Committee on Statistics [39]. The potential of geothermal energy was analyzed by the electronic map of geothermal energy produced by ESRI [47].

The water quality index (i_4.2) is initially focused on the quality of drinking water, but also considers an overall quality of natural water. The index's calculation is based on the global database of the UN Water Program, which takes into account such water characteristics as dissolved oxygen, pH, total nitrogen and phosphorus content [48]. Air quality (i_4.3) is considering only in terms of PM 10 concentration [49]. Since there were no local available data for the ecological footprint (i_4.4) and bio-capacity (i_4.5), national-level assessments were used [50]. Also, the national indicator of household water consumption per capita (i_4.1), reflecting a national water footprint, was taken from the data of the Committee on Statistics [39] and used for calculation of Nur-Sultan city SDEWES Index.

To define the intensity of CO₂ emissions (i_5.3) the ratio of all CO₂ emissions to the total energy consumption of buildings and transport (indicators i_1.1 and i_1.2) was calculated. The volume of emissions from stationary sources and from transport (i_5.1 and i_5.2 respectively) were calculated according to the methodological guidelines on greenhouse gas emissions from thermal power plants and from motor transport [42]. The fourth indicator in this dimension (i_5.4) shows the number of main industries that emit CO₂: the main stationary sources of emissions in Nur-Sultan city are three thermal power plants, using high-sulfur coal with high carbon intensity. The fifth indicator (i_5.4) – Airport Carbon Accreditation – did not contribute to the SDEWES Index of Nur-Sultan city, due to the lack of carbon accreditation of the local airport [51].

The D6 indicators reflect features of the urban structure aimed to provide a well-being of city's residents. The Nur-Sultan city, as well as Almaty and almost all cities designed in Soviet times – is a monocentric city [58], and most of its facilities are concentrated in the center. Since a public transport in the city is still poorly developed, this causes quite dense traffic; pedestrian routes are also developed mainly in the city center. Due to significantly low density of population, the city structure of Nur-Sultan is not compact, being composed of new and old districts with various architecture decisions, different density of the road network and green spaces. Given that indicator values range from 1 to 3, where 3 is the most striking example of a compact city and also of highest green spaces share in city's area, Nur-Sultan obtained 1 point for every position, including ecological corridors condition. There are no specially protected areas in Nur-Sultan, so the city receives 1 point for green corridors and a water protection zone of the Ishim River on the border of the city. The indicator i_6.2 was calculated as an arithmetic mean of these three characteristics (Table 5).

The indicator (i_6.1) which is aimed to demonstrate accessibility of public transport was based on the cost of a one-way ticket (90 tenge or about $0.21 at the exchange rate of $1 = 426 KZT). For the last three indicators in this dimension the national values were accepted: GDP by PPP was taken from the global data site [52], the inequality value – from the UNEP Report on Human Development of Kazakhstan [53], and the level of higher education from the OECD Report on Kazakhstan [54].

The priority areas in dimension D7 in Kazakhstan are improvements in education, the labor market, social integration, public administration, etc. and also a "green" development promotion. To count achievements in this area the share of R&D expenditures from GDP was taken from the global data site (1 point – less than 0.8%; 2 points – from 0.8 to 3%; 3 points – more than 3%). The first indicator in the area (i_7.1) is the arithmetic mean of the area of financing and R&D expenditures. All values were taken for the country.

The indicator i_7.2 is related to the number of patents in the field of clean technologies, according to the national data [55]. The number of "green" patents was graded: 1 point – less than 2,200; 2 points – from 2,200 to 30,000; 3 points – more than 30,000. Graduation rate for the share: 1 point – less than 2%; 2 points – from 2 to 2.5%; 3 points – more than 2.5%. The third indicator (i_7.3) representing the number of higher institutions (public, private, etc.). The fourth indicator is the Hirsch index (i_7.4) and in our case this indicator shows the number of citations of publications in Kazakhstan [56]. The latest indicator in this dimension shows the national target for reducing CO₂, which is amounted of 15% by 2030 [57].

The comparison of cities within the SDEWES framework allows concluding about their strong and weak positions in a context of path towards sustainability. Since SDEWES Index is a tool for evaluating systems, that are inherently evolving objects [59], it falls within the UMC principles. Along with this, SDEWES Index is built on diverse indicators that characterize interdependent processes, so its use forms a basis for a comparative analysis. According to one of the most reputable Russian urbanists G.M. Lappo, the comparative analysis corresponds to both traditional methods of geographical research and modern approaches in the field of sustainable development: "Cities are an object that can be said to be intended for comparison" [60]. SDEWES Index therefore seems to be a rather good candidate to develop Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis [59].

The results of the undertaken analysis form a fairly objective picture. According to the normalized indicators values, which were calculated using formulas (1) and (2), Nur-Sultan's position is below the average in the D1 dimension. Nur-Sultan city is ahead of only five cities: Beijing, London, Incheon, Nagoya and Washington, taking the 6^th position from the end of the rating. Due to the longest among the comparable cities heating season, depending on a harsher climate, thermal energy composes over 40% of the total energy consumed by buildings in the city of Nur-Sultan. Moreover, such a significant share is explained by an inefficient heating system with high heat losses of buildings. Thus, the number of heating days and energy consumption per capita are the weak positions of Nur-Sultan in the D1 dimension.

The normalized values of indicators in the D2 dimension of Nur-Sultan city demonstrate weak positions in energy system characteristics: high energy consumption per capita in the city is caused by poor implementation of renewable and energy-saving technologies both in centralized and individual heat supply systems and a preferable use of individual transport by population. The total population of Nur-Sultan (1078 thousand people in 2019) is 3 times less than the population of Berlin and Incheon, and 8 times less than of London and Bangalore. At the same time, energy consumption per capita ranges from 7 (Bangalore) to 19 (Berlin) MWh/person, and for Nur-Sultan this value is almost 24 MWh/person (Figure 3). The high carbon intensity of coal and fuel oil used for power generation in Nur-Sultan is planned to be reduced by gasification in the near future, however this will not solve the problem completely and represents carbon lock-in.

Figure 3.

Normalized indicators in the D2 dimension

The D3 dimension shows the potential of renewable energy sources development. The only strong point of Nur-Sultan city in this area is a potential of wind energy (Figure 4), which is almost equally developed as the same potential of cities Helsinki, Copenhagen and Amsterdam.

Figure 4.

Normalized indicators in the D3 dimension

This potential depends on the average wind speed, which ranged from 6.3 to 6.6 m/s in the leading cities listed above. The smallest share of alternative sources in energy production, as well as the minimum share of biofuels in transportation sector belongs to the cities of the post-Soviet space, namely Lviv (~6%) and Nur-Sultan (less than 1%). Since the indicator of household water consumption per capita exceeds the values of other cities by more than 10 units, the water resources use in Nur-Sultan can be described as low-effective. The city has the lowest water quality after Lviv and Timisoara which are also among three anti-leaders in the D3 rating.

The weak position of Nur-Sultan city is also the concentration of pollutants in the air – the indicator in D4 dimension, which was estimated by the content of PM₁₀ particles in the atmosphere. By this indicator, Nur-Sultan is second only to cities Beijing (108 microns/m³) and Bangalore (118 microns/m³) due to the use of coal as fuel at the thermal power plants. In other cities of the rating, a larger share in the structure of energy generation is made up of more environmentally friendly options, such as gas-fired thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, etc. However, gas-fired thermal power plants will certainly not solve the urgent issue of carbon lock-in and will not support net-zero carbon targets. High PM₁₀ concentrations in Bangalore and Beijing are also explained by heavy traffic. The values of the ecological footprint and bio-capacity of Kazakhstan are close to the average values for many other countries of rating: the consumption of natural resources exceeds the restoring ability of ecosystems. The only exceptions to this indicator are Finland (Helsinki) and Sweden (Stockholm).

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions from stationary sources and motor transport, Nur-Sultan occupies the middle positions by dimension D5 in the rating. CO₂ emissions are higher in cities with high number of population and therefore – high energy consumption. These are mainly cities with more than 1,700 thousand people, such as Vienna, Warsaw, Paris, Nagoya, Incheon, Berlin, London, Bangalore and Beijing. However, by the volume of emissions per unit of energy generated, Nur-Sultan is third from the end of rating. As to the carbon accreditation of airports, Nur-Sultan do not have it, as well as post-Soviet city Lviv, and some others European cities (Timisoara, Aarhus, Zaragoza), and also the airports of Washington and Nagoya.

The set of indicators for the D6 dimension area includes social welfare indicators that are related to the environmental and economic indicators of urban development. For example, the cities of Nur-Sultan and Lviv have the lowest cost of a ticket for a one-way trip by public transport after Bangalore. The weakest position of Nur-Sultan in this area is the urban form and protected sites: the population is distributed extremely unevenly throughout the territory and its density is significantly less than in other cities at the rating. The area of green spaces of the city is also rather small, and most of the city's services are provided only in the central part, while public transport is not popular due to its low efficiency. This situation is the result of uneven development of the city in XX and XXI centuries due to fundamental changes in the administrative status.

By GDP per capita Kazakhstan exceeds only three countries: China, Ukraine and India. The indicator of well-being and the percentage of the population with higher education in Kazakhstan are also less than the average value: according to the first indicator, Kazakhstan is closer to Poland (7.1), and according to the second – to Ukraine (more than 20%). Indicators in the D7 dimension allow comparing the level of scientific and technological development and achievements in the field of sustainability (Figure 5).

The city of Nur-Sultan is close to the cities of Eastern Europe (namely Lviv, Vilnius and Timisoara). Ukraine, Romania and Kazakhstan have weak positions in the indicator of R&D policy orientation due to the small share of GDP (less than 1%) for R&D expenses. Expectedly, Kazakhstan also has the lowest Hirsh index. The number of patents for green technologies in Kazakhstan is higher than could be expected, as the country has recently been stimulated to improve the energy sector development. This indicator in Kazakhstan is similar to the same one of Ukraine. In terms of the number of local institutions of higher education, Nur-Sultan occupies quite high position due to the fact that there are many universities with different specializations.

Figure 5.

Normalized indicators in the D7 dimension

The analysis of Nur-Sultan positions in the rating of totally 22 cities revealed its strengths and weaknesses of the development, taking into account resource intensity and other environmental and economic indicators important for sustainability. If to compare the positions of Nur-Sultan with the average values, the main trend coincides with other cities in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. However, Nur-Sultan continues to grow, and the situation may worsen, that is the reason why the changes in the energy sector efficiency are absolutely necessary.

Based on the results of the SDEWES Index, all the cities were assigned to 4 groups in accordance to [31]: the lower 25% is characterized to contain the "Challenged Cities" that face challenges in three and more dimensions. The cities that take place in the second quartile at the lower 25-50% of the sample continue to be in need for strategic approaches to address remaining challenges, namely "Solution Seeking Cities." Above the median value, the "Transitioning Cities" are characterized to have certain strengths at the top 50-75% of the sample, while the "Pioneering Cities" at the top 25% of all cities have strengths in multiple dimensions (Table 6).

Comparing the Nur-Sultan positions to the leader and outsider of the rating – Stockholm and Beijing (Figure 6), respectively – the only similar position can be defined for Stockholm and Nur-Sultan: due to harsh climate both cities are close in the field of energy consumption (D1). At the same time, Nur-Sultan and Beijing have similar positions in the field of urban planning and social welfare (D6). Despite Stockholm is an absolute leader in almost all areas, the most significant feature of Beijing is strong positions in the scientific field (D7), which can lead to improvement the environmental situation in China, and strengthening positions in all other fields in a future.

Figure 6.

The SDEWES indexes of Nur-Sultan, Beijing and Stockholm cities

The comparison of Nur-Sultan city positions with post-Soviet cities in the rating, the similar trends are obvious for all the dimensions of the index (Figure 7).

Figure 7.

The SDEWES indexes of post-Soviet cities

Since Lithuania is part of the European Union from 1990^th beginning, its capital city – Vilnius – included to "Solution Seeking Cities" is focused to address remaining challenges. The strengths of Vilnius city are dimensions D4, D5, D6. Nur-Sultan and Lviv (Ukraine) are both assigned to the group of the "Challenged Cities" that face challenges in three and more dimensions. A noticeable gap between Nur-Sultan and Lviv cities is in the dimensions D2 and D4 – energy efficiency and a state of environment. The strengths of both Lviv and Vilnius cities in the D2 area are caused by implementation of the energy efficiency plans, and by common adherence to the European trends. The gap of Nur-Sultan in the area D4 is caused by high water consumption and a significantly worse quality of atmospheric air due to use of coal as a main fuel.