An analysis of the environmental matrix in the Adriatic Sea – past and future projections
The main objective of the proposed work is to assess the environmental matrix in the Adriatic Sea and its expected dynamics in the near future. The attention is focused on the analysis of the wind and wave climate in this basin and to perform a joint evaluation of the wind and wave power resources. The analysis is structured in two-time intervals, each one covering a 30-year time slice. The first time interval represents the past and covers the historical reference period 1976-2005, while the second comprises the near future from 2041 to 2070, under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 4.5. For the same two periods, the wave climate and the wave power were evaluated based on the simulation results carried out with the Simulating WAves Nearshore spectral phase averaged model. An analysis of the past and future expected extreme events is carried out. A comprehensive picture of the expected wind and wave power dynamics in the Adriatic Sea is provided by the comparison between the results obtained in the past with those from the near future. The synergy between the wind and wave power is also evaluated for future development of joint wind–wave projects. This option represents a viable direction for the near future to balance wind and wave power.