Abstract

Access to electricity remains limited for nearly 655 million people worldwide, primarily in rural and isolated communities. This study addresses the persistent challenge of planning electricity access in off-grid, data-scarce contexts, where the absence of historical consumption data hinders effective energy system design. A literature review was conducted to identify, classify, and analyse existing methods for estimating electricity demand based on six criteria: hierarchy, source of information, scale, modelling approach, temporal resolution, and time frame. Based on this analysis, a structured framework was proposed, integrating common insights and practices from previous studies and the authors’ experience. The framework outlines key steps, including community diagnosis, methodological selection, data collection, data processing and modelling, and result assessment. It provides guidance for selecting and applying appropriate methods and supports the comparison and evaluation of different approaches. The practical application of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study in a rural electrification context. The framework assists in informing decisions in electrification projects and contributes to the design of cost-effective and context-appropriate energy systems. This contribution addresses a critical gap in rural electrification research and practice, particularly under conditions of limited data availability.