Abstract

Brazil and Mexico are the largest economies and waste generators in Latin America, facing low recycling rates and heavy landfill reliance. A transition to sustainable management requires progressive recovery of both organic and dry waste. This study hypothesizes that concurrent organic diversion offsets lower heating value losses caused by dry recyclables recovery. Seven progressive recycling and organic diversion scenarios were modeled across three contrasting urban scales: Santo André, Mexico City, and Guadalajara. Results show that organic diversion reduces weighted waste moisture down to 47.2%, stabilizing energy potential and achieving up to 81.5% landfill diversion. Based on a 2.437 MWh/year baseline, the recovered electricity could power over 750,000 households in Mexico City, supporting urban energy transitions aligned with Brazil's Solid Waste Plan goals.