Abstract

Biomass for energy use is a limited resource that will play a critical role in achieving carbon neutrality, yet its optimal allocation across sectors remains uncertain. This study develops dynamic modelling scenarios to identify economically optimal biomass utilization pathways for Austria until 2050. The major new contribution and research gap closed is that a holistic multidisciplinary approach is applied, considering economic, carbon life-cycle aspects and sustainability of potentials simultaneously. The results show that the use of biomass for energy services is primarily allocated to individual heating and small district heating systems, where it remains the least-cost option both today and in future projections. However, this bottom-up cost perspective may conflict with broader decarbonization priorities. From a societal viewpoint biomass may need to be increasingly directed toward sectors with limited renewable alternatives particularly for high-temperature applications in industry. The findings highlight a potential misalignment between market-driven biomass allocation and long-term climate objectives. Consequently, future biomass governance may require policy frameworks that prioritize system-level decarbonization benefits over purely cost-based allocation. Eventually, regarding the quantity of sustainable primary bioenergy sources a major finding is that up to 2050 a total quantity of about 250 PJ will be available while the expected demand in the chosen scenario will be about 255 PJ. Hence, this is only a moderate gap which could be closed by imports or by more ambitious efficiency improvements.