Abstract

Air-source heat pumps are strongly influenced by outdoor conditions, it is expected that ongoing climate changes may impact their operation. This paper presents a predictive analysis of the behaviour of air-source heat pumps in two cities with extremely cold and warm climates in the short, medium, and long term. The seasonal coefficient of performance and heat pump seasonal energy efficiency index are evaluated over the years, considering climate change for both locations. Climate change will shorten the winter period and prolong the summer. In winter, this results in a slight softening of the seasonal coefficient of performance and a reduction in operating hours. In summer, there is a slight increase in seasonal energy efficiency ratio values and hours of operation. The work highlights how the performance of the air-source heat pump, on average, will improve in winter due to an average increase in temperature. Heat pumps are expected to be used in the future and in geographical areas where they are not currently used due to the extreme winter temperatures.