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Statistical Properties of Electricity Generation from a Large System of Wind Plants and Demand for Fast Regulation

Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Volume 5, Issue 3, pp 447-465
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13044/j.sdewes.d5.0156
Dubravko Sabolić1 , Alan Župan1, Roman Malarić2
1 Croatian Transmission System Operator Ltd., Kupska 4, Zagreb, Croatia
2 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Unska 3, Zagreb, Croatia

Experimental data of total wind generation, recorded at 5 minute intervals and published by the Bonneville Power Administration for the years 2007 to 2013, were analyzed on a year by year basis. All data were normalized to total installed power of wind plants. Statistical distribution functions were obtained for the following wind generation-related quantities: total generation as percentage of total installed capacity; change in total generation power in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 45, and 60 minutes as percentage of total installed capacity; duration of intervals with total generated power, expressed as percentage of total installed capacity, lower than certain pre-specified level. The statistical distributions obtained from the data were used to devise simple, yet accurate, theoretical models. The models presented here can be utilized in analyses related to power system economics/policy, because they describe availability of wind energy resource in simple statistical terms relevant to interactions of wind generation with electricity system, and electricity markets. After a brief display of the models, the article concentrates on static properties of the observed system’s electricity generation related to its capacity credit, as well as on dynamic properties related to the demand for fast regulation (i.e., secondary and fast tertiary reserve). Both properties are important for technical planning of future electricity systems, as well as rational design of policy measures.

Keywords: Wind plants, Electricity production, Measured data, Dynamic properties, Statistical modeling, Demand for regulation.

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