Abstract

This study proposes a financial evaluation methodology based on real options to assess photovoltaic energy projects in health-care institutions under uncertainty. Applied to a hospital in Barranquilla, Colombia, a solar system generating 16,761 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year—covering 50% of electricity demand in critical areas—reduced operating costs and improved energy security. The traditional valuation yielded a net present value of US$10,316, while real options analysis produced a value of US$5,334. Scenario analysis showed outcomes ranging from US$5,168 to US$15,467. The expansion strategy could increase the project value to US$72,901, and a put option of US$2,559 offers a safeguard under adverse conditions. The probability of achieving positive returns was 50.1%, with electricity price and solar irradiation as the most influential variables. Beyond its practical findings, the study introduces a novel application of real options tailored to the health-care sector, offering a robust framework for sustainable energy investment planning.