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Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Volume 2, Issue 2, pp 174-190
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13044/j.sdewes.2014.02.0015
Nicolus K. Rotich , Jari Backman, Lassi Linnanen, Perfilieve Daniil
Laboratory of fluid dynamics, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta, Finland

In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

Keywords: Wind, Resource, Assessment, Forecasting, Artificial, Neural, Networks

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