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Analysis of residential rooftop photovoltaic diffusion in India through a Bass model approach

Original scientific paper

Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
ARTICLE IN PRESS (volume and issue assigned later), 1100423
DOI: https://doi.org/10.13044/j.sdewes.d10.0423
Hendrigo Batista da Silva1, Jagruti Thakur2 , Wadaed Uturbey1, Viktoria Martin3
1 UFMG Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
2 KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
3 Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm, Sweden


In this paper, the analysis of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems is performed using the Bass model. The historical data of installed rooftop photovoltaic is not enough for the model, as the installation of photovoltaic was almost non-existent, hence data of solar water heaters is utilized to calculate the parameters for the model. The trajectory of growth for solar water heaters in the market presents a congruence for the growth of solar photovoltaic due to inherent similarities in the technologies and its application. India was used as a case study of the application of this borrowing approach in a market where photovoltaic is also used to provide electricity to local communities. Data from solar water heater market in India were used and they indicate innovator parameters of 0.00105 and imitator parameters of 0.12219. The study is significant as it forecasts the diffusion of photovoltaic in the market, which is essential for achieving India's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions goals and Renewable Energy targets. The results indicate that residential rooftop photovoltaic diffusion will tend to present a slower pace in India than in other markets if no additional policies are implemented to foster this market.

Keywords: Solar PV, Market diffusion, Bass model, India, Residential market, Solar water heaters

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